Oil Price Gains On Strong OPEC Supply Reduction Pact

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There is growing speculation that inventories will start rising again in the near future.

Today, the U.S. is exporting more oil and products, thanks to new technology and the rise of shale production.

Oil traders are growing increasingly confident over the outlook, with Bloomberg News reporting record bets on further price rises for both US and global oil benchmarks. Its "New Oil Order" outlook - where shale production transforms global supply - is on hiatus, but not finished, the bank said.

Goldman sees Brent crude reaching $75 a barrel over the next three months and will climb to $82.50 within six months. Royal Dutch Shell Plc said improved exploration and production lifted its quarterly profit to a three-year high, while refining and trading fell short of expectations as margins shrank.

There's one thing investors need to pay close attention to: US oil production. Yet the size of these inventories can not be predicted yet, especially with the long string of draws during the winter, when demand for fuel is usually lower.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Labor Department added more support when reporting first-time claims for unemployment dropped 1,000 for the week ending January 27.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $66.13 a barrel. WTI prices have been on an upward trend since February 2016. This essentially canceled out the export cut by Saudi Arabia (albeit, a swap of heavier crude for lighter barrels - a key theme in the global crude market).

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The oil bulls point to OPEC's discipline in maintaining output cuts, Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia's commitment to erode supply surpluses and declining US stockpiles.

Output by OPEC also rose in January from an eight-month low as higher output from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia offset a further decline in Venezuela, a Media survey found. Goldman Sachs hiked its price forecast Thursday, saying the market is now likely balanced and strong global growth will buoy demand in emerging economies.

The American oil industry is literally swimming in crude, and there is little sign of it ending anytime soon. Previously, U.S. could only import to Canada. Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump waived the application of nuclear sanctions, but warned that this could be the last such waiver.

The company has said that recent changes in United States tax rates is facilitating more capital investment.

A few major investment banks went back to the drawing board and revised all price targets for the oil price. However, after the September independence referendum in Kurdistan, Iraqi troops took control of disputed Kirkuk and the surrounding fields. Production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico reached 1.67 million b/d, up 14% from the October 2017 level as the region recovered from Hurricane Nate.

"If you look at the economics on most of the big Permian players, not many of them make a lot of money", he said. Offshore projects do not face the same threats from Niger Delta militant groups that onshore ones do. A decade ago, in November 2008, production from tight formations accounted for only 7% of total US production. Production in North Dakota was 1.18 million b/d. Bunker prices may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

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